Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope Estimator Test in Makueni County, Kenya
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Date
2024-03
Authors
Muia, V. K.
Opere, A. O.
Ndunda, E.
Amwata, D. A.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
JMES
Abstract
This study sought to analyze annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall and
temperature (minimum and maximum) trends in Makueni County from 1991 to 2020
using the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator. Data analysis
was done in R software. The findings revealed a declining trend in annual and seasonal
(short and long rain seasons) rainfall, albeit statistically insignificant. Similarly, monthly
rainfall exhibited a downward trend in nine of the twelve months. This decline, however,
was only significant in June. The findings revealed a statistically significant upward
trend in the county’s annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures across
the study period. Similarly, monthly analysis revealed a statistically significant
increasing temperature (both minimum and maximum) trend in at least nine of the
twelve months. When the data was analyzed by sub county, the results revealed differing
trends in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall patterns with some sub counties
experiencing increased rainfall and others decreased rainfall. However, annual, seasonal
and monthly temperature (minimum and maximum) analysis revealed an increasing
trend in all the sub counties with the most of the observations being statistically
significant. These patterns suggest that Makueni county is already experiencing climate
change. The findings serve as a foundation for sound climate change policy decisions in
the county. They also suggest the need for the development of climate change adaptation
strategies targeted at mitigating risks and increasing resilience to climate shocks.
Description
Article
Keywords
Rainfall, Temperature, Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope, Kenya
Citation
Muia, V. K., Opere, A. O., Ndunda, E., & Amwata, D. A. (2024). Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator Test in Makueni County, Kenya. J. Mater. Environ. Sci., 15 (3), 349, 367.